Skype downloads approach 500 Million

In the next few days, Skype will pass the 500 million downloads mark. I seem to remember someone saying that Kazaa was the most downloaded program ever, and looking at the Kazaa home page, they currently show 389 Million. Skype is at 498 Million as I write this, and is downloading at almost a million a day. The download rate was over 1M a day when they made a new release available and existing users were getting updates. Compared to Kazaa, Skype is downloading every day, what Kazaa is downloading every week.

How are the competition doing? Vonage added a few hundred thousand users last quarter. Thats a few orders of magnitude away from being a competitor!

Of course, Kazaa is based on an earlier version of the P2P technology that powers Skype, and which is about to come to the world again via Joost. Joost just released a new beta for Windows, and their first beta for Intel based OSX. I still can't justify upgrading from my own Powerbook G4 (it just works) so I'll have to wait for them to backport to the older systems, and use my work laptop.

New Joost Beta

They just released a new build, it fixes some problems and has some minor user interface enhancements. I left it running for a while and now I'm starting to run out of content that I want to watch... There are about 30 channels for beta testing. probably the most demanding are live music videos, Joost has fine sound quality and keeps up with very rapid on-screen action better than I would expect in full-screen mode on my Dell laptop. It becomes a bit more pixellated when its working hard to keep up, and the sound glitches to repeat a sub-second fragment now and again if it gets behind due to network slowdowns. On low action images, its very nice and clear.

In comparison, I've noticed that on my Slingbox TiVo, it does constant pitch sound stretching to slow down the display at the start of a show, thats how it sneakily builds up a buffer without making you wait.

The Joost folks are promising new content, an OSX version and an expansion of the beta program soon. I've had a few comments requesting beta invites, and I haven't had any to give. If and when I have any spare invites, I'll post it, so hold your comments...

Joost and The Venice Project Beta Testing

I signed up for TVP's beta program a month or two ago, and got accepted recently, so I've been playing with it. A few days ago they launched under the name Joost, which I find amusing since I have a very good Dutch friend called Joost (pronounced yoast) and I'm not sure if I'm supposed to say it as yoast or juiced....

I've had a TiVo for years now, and Joost has a very nice user interface that works for me like a TiVo that I can run anywhere, and which has tens of terabytes of stored programs, not just the 30GB or whatever that I have inside my TiVo. The other thing that is better than TiVo is the finding experience. I was able to type "Lotus" into a search box, and find two episodes from "5th Gear" where they were track testing my favorite car. The content is largely European TV at present, and they have enough programs to keep beta testers happy for a while, but are going to need a lot more as the program launches.

The display quality is good, and there is a short delay when a program is first selected, especially if its one of the more obscure programs. The networking is something like a securely encrypted in-order bittorrent. You don't have to wait for the whole program to load before you start watching it.

I posted last year on disruptive innovation as it applies to the moving pictures industry, discussing the concept of a maturity model for innovation, evolution from the cinema to thepiratebay, and a more abstract maturity model. In the final part I made this statement:

The final phase in the evolution of a market occurs as the cost of replication and distribution of the product approaches zero. There is no end user cost to use the Internet to download a movie. A central utility such as YouTube can use a mixture of advertising and premium services (for a minority of power users) to offset their own costs. Peer to peer systems distribute the load so that there is no central site and no incremental cost in the system. The only service that is needed is some kind of search, so that peers can find each other's content to exchange it.

I was talking about how bittorrent based video is inevitably going to dominate over centralized services like YouTube, and there have been reports that most of the traffic on the internet is bittorrent. The inconvenience of bittorrent is that it is basically an overnight batch job to get a program. Joost fixes the problems of bittorrent, while staying as close as possible to free distribution. Joost inserts a small number of short adverts that the Joost client figures out how to target to your interests. These are intended to be enough to pay for the central seeding servers, and to pay the content owners so good programs become available, without becoming intrusive enough to switch off the users.

Based on my own maturity model, Joost is nicely setup to be the end game for this market. That doesn't mean that we stop going to the cinema or watching YouTube, just that Joost could end up being "bittorrent for the masses", and be an order of magnitude bigger than everything else.